I've wondered about this a little bit - for example, if you have a fighter who has a huge advantage standing up but a huge disadvantage on the ground and all you're really concerned about in takedowns. If you think your opponent will go for takedowns, say, 20% of the time, are you better off guessing 20% of the time, or guessing 100% of the time since it's the only "bonus" you're concerned about getting at all?