Thoughts please: gameplanning / predicting opponent tactics

[MMATycoon]

OK, so as many of you will know I am currently totally revamping counters and how they work. I'm making it so that we will see failed counter attempts as well as totally changing how we work out success rates for counters. During this process I've been re-thinking how I want to calculate the success rate of both counters and offensive moves.

 

Background: At the moment the more infrequently you set your sliders to do a move, the more likely it is to land. So if you set e.g. head punches to 10%, they are more likely to land than if you set them to 20%, because of that "surprise factor" or whatever you want to call it. Call this a success modifier.

 

 

 

Having spent more time thinking about it, this is a bit of a fudge. It works as a concept once the fight has been going for a round or so but let's say you come into a fight with a totally unpredictable gameplan and go for 100% takedowns with a striker; this system basically gives your opponent magical predicting powers straight from the first bell and your chance of landing a takedown is massively diminished because you set that slider so high. Basically that's rubbish.

 

I have begun reworking that process and instead of using your slider tactics to modify success rate, I've used your fighter's stats over his entire fight history.... N.B. the only problem being we haven't stored clinch attempts / successes at all so we'll have to fudge that.

 

As the fight then progresses, we tally up attempted attacks (offensive and counter) from your opponent, and adjust these values gradually over the course of the first 30 to 50 moves depending on experience and intelligence.

 

So that's a muuuuch more logical system because it mimics gameplanning / prior knowledge of your opponent but does not assume your fighter can guess the opponent's gameplan for the current fight. However, it's a bit lacking for counters in particular because there is no differentiation in the previous fight's stats for whether it was an offensive move or a counter.

 

 

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO eventually, here is my question;

 

Would you guys like the OPTION (not required), to predict your opponent's standup & counter sliders to use as the initial base values instead of previous fight stats? I'd just give you a set of sliders that you'd set exactly like you set your own, which would be your prediction of your opponent's tactics. If you predicted high counter takedowns for example, your fighter would be pre-prepared and would be more likely to defend against them. Again though, as the fight progresses, these modifier numbers would adjust to what was actually happening in the fight.

 

If you didn't choose to set up your opponent's slider predictions, we can default to using their historical fight stats.

 

 

 

I'm always striving for more realism and I think this is a massively more realistic situation than what we had before both using the stats but obviously moreso using your own predictions. What do you guys think?

 

 

edit; please read my next two replies down the page if you are unsure how it works.

[UniConor]

I like fudge

 

And on first thoughts.. I'm not sure, I always predict what my opponent will do and try to counter that by using my own sliders. To set the sliders I think he(or she) will do will take up a little bit more time, maybe be a little more frustrating if you get it wrong.

 

However I feel like it will create more diversity, people may try out new game plans to surprise. But then the game is now a "fight predictor" and the people that predict fights now win... Is that completely fair? I mean a lot of fighters in real life, like Donald Cerrone for example have a "I don't give a shit about my opponent" attitude and proceed to beat them anyway.

 

I would rather historical. I think it makes it more realistic.

[Guest]

Yes, please

[Guest]

sure sounds good to me.

 

So in essence, the closer you are to predicting your opponents' gameplan, the more likely you are of nullifying him? But as the minutes & rounds go by, the strategy adjusts itself to what your original gameplan was? is that how it works?

[Guest]

Sounds really interesting. Definitely worth trying it out, and if it doesn't work, we obviously don't have to use it!

[Deuce7]

If there is a way to have a trial period with the tactics then I would be open to testing them. Or maybe have a selective group of trusted managers that can be the "guinea pigs" and face each other a few times and then get feedback.

[MMATycoon]

sure sounds good to me.

 

So in essence, the closer you are to predicting your opponents' gameplan, the more likely you are of nullifying him? But as the minutes & rounds go by, the strategy adjusts itself to what your original gameplan was? is that how it works?

 

This isn't anything to do with your own gameplan, it's solely about trying to nullify your opponent's gameplan. As the fight progress, it adjusts from your prediction to the reality of what is happening in the fight.

 

So if you predicted lots of head punches but there were actually lots of body punches, at first the opponent's body punches would be more likely to succeed but then as the fight progressed and your fighter noted that he'd got the gameplan wrong, he'd start to avoid the body shots better.

[MMATycoon]

I like fudge

 

And on first thoughts.. I'm not sure, I always predict what my opponent will do and try to counter that by using my own sliders. To set the sliders I think he(or she) will do will take up a little bit more time, maybe be a little more frustrating if you get it wrong.

 

However I feel like it will create more diversity, people may try out new game plans to surprise. But then the game is now a "fight predictor" and the people that predict fights now win... Is that completely fair? I mean a lot of fighters in real life, like Donald Cerrone for example have a "I don't give a shit about my opponent" attitude and proceed to beat them anyway.

 

I would rather historical. I think it makes it more realistic.

 

Effectively this only has any effect until the fight has gone on for x minutes, so getting your opponent's tactics wrong only impacts the fight early on, until the fighter realises he's got the gameplan wrong.

[Mr.J]

sounds great. I am ready to test it if given the chance.

[Guest]

OK, that makes better sense. I say let's do it!

[duphus]

 

 

 

Having spent more time thinking about it, this is a bit of a fudge. It works as a concept once the fight has been going for a round or so but let's say you come into a fight with a totally unpredictable gameplan and go for 100% takedowns with a striker; this system basically gives your opponent magical predicting powers straight from the first bell and your chance of landing a takedown is massively diminished because you set that slider so high. Basically that's rubbish.

 

 

LOL, I have told this to many people and many didn't want to believe me. They would argue that going anything less then 100% TD's with a new ground guy was stupid and wasting moves cause they had no stand up and they needed a TD. I always said the engine knew from slider settings from the get go and it was predictable, glad to see I was right.

[sabaton]

While it may sound good on paper, it seems a bit complicated and could definitely keep new managers from joining. The best rule of thumb is always K.I.S.S. Keep it simple stupid

 

One of the reasons i joined 5 years ago is because the game was not overly complicated. I would rather see a "guess your opponents strategy" be very simplified. Like tick boxes. Is your opp going to focus on 1) punches or 2) kicks. 1) head punches or 2) body punches. 1) striking or takedowns, etc

The effect of guessing your opponents tactics should not be high. U can guess jon jones or anderson silvas tactics, but it isnt going to help u 1 damn bit. Physical skills and your own gameplan are FAR more important.

[duphus]

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO eventually, here is my question;

 

Would you guys like the OPTION (not required), to predict your opponent's standup & counter sliders to use as the initial base values instead of previous fight stats? I'd just give you a set of sliders that you'd set exactly like you set your own, which would be your prediction of your opponent's tactics. If you predicted high counter takedowns for example, your fighter would be pre-prepared and would be more likely to defend against them. Again though, as the fight progresses, these modifier numbers would adjust to what was actually happening in the fight.

 

If you didn't choose to set up your opponent's slider predictions, we can default to using their historical fight stats.

 

 

 

I'm always striving for more realism and I think this is a massively more realistic situation than what we had before both using the stats but obviously moreso using your own predictions. What do you guys think?

 

 

edit; please read my next two replies down the page if you are unsure how it works.

 

I like this idea, it's been brought up before is different ways. I guess my question is? That seems like a lot of sliders to set with all the different strikes and Ground moves. Maybe simplifying it, as more strike/grapple defense and see how that goes first then expand it after it's sorted out.

 

Just seems like I'd have to set 2 sets of sliders to cover what I think the opponent is going to do to cover all the moves he might do.

 

Maybe I'm missing something and it's not that complex

[MMATycoon]

I was thinking we'd just do standup, not clinch and ground as the standups where your opponent's tactics have more of an impact.

[duphus]

but I assuming you're going to add in something to defend the TD's and maybe clinch attempts and forget the rest of the ground game or clinch for now? is that right?

[MMATycoon]

yup.

[bjornmma1]

I like to figure out how my opponent is gonna gameplan for my fighter. It makes the game more challenging. The new system would make it more realistic if I understand everything correctly so I believe it might be good, but only if it kicks in at the earliest after the first round

[Guest]

This sounds soooool gooood.

[Wolf]

This would be good imo

[Goldenape]

"Everyone has a game plan until they get punched in the mouth" .... Will that also be added? Because you can guess a game plan all you like but once you're getting hit you kinda just go with the flow until you get back to your senses .... The intelligence of the fighter must be a massive factor I think and if they are against a good boxer/kickboxer and they aren't very good on the feet even if they knew what was coming they wouldn't be able to nullify them really unless they just run away.... It's a good idea but it couldn't work if the right stats weren't taken into account...in my opinion

[Wolf]

"Everyone has a game plan until they get punch in the mouth" .... Will that also be added? Because you can guess a game plan all you like but once you're getting hit you kinda just go with the flow until you get back to your senses .... The intelligence of the fighter must be a massive factor I think and if they are agiasnt a good boxer/kickboxer and they aren't very good on the feet even if they knew what was coming they wouldn't be able to nullify them really unless they just run away.... It's a good idea but it couldn't work if the right stats weren't taken into account...in my opinion

 

This is actually a really good point

[xenus]

Seems interesting. That could work out if we are talking about reality. I would like to see more details on it.

[METAL666nz]

This sounds very interesting. I like the sound of more realism. I would like a way of testing it though before it impacts to heavy on my very average stats.

[MMATycoon]

There isn't really going to be any way of testing it for you guys cos we don't have any public test fight system. I wouldn't really worry about it too much - it's not a be all and end all sort of modification to the success of the opponent's moves.

 

As for gameplans being all well and good until you get punched in the mouth, I think that's gunna apply to everything in the fight engine really - getting punched decreases your chance of doing anything well

[Steel]

I like this idea especially if it can lead to fighters being valued by managers for having hiddens other than chin, heart KO power.

 

Intelligence would become something required, but so would confidence because if that sucked and your fighter takes a shot, he isn't going to be applying his intellect.

 

Fighters being valued for more rounded hiddens would be a good thing.

 

However, Mike, managers spend on VIP testing and sacking to find granite , KO and decent learning speed.

 

would good chin, got a college degree and cocky like Rory , now make a good fighter?