Guest Posted September 10, 2009 Report Share Posted September 10, 2009 Welcome to the first edition of Matt’s Picks. For every show, I’ll provide my insight analysis for First Canadian Bookies customers as to what I believe are the best value bets on a given card. Our first event will be CFC 54, which occurs on September 11. We’re early into the betting game and bookies are being a little tight with the odds, so keep in mind that the percentages you’re playing with are not great. But there are a few recommended plays on this card. Jake Franklin (-115) vs Jay Who (-106): Middleweight Title Fight The odds have actually narrowed considerably since Franklin opened at -150. I actually felt Franklin’s brutal sprawl’n’brawl game was under-valued at -150 so I can’t stress enough how good of a value I think he is at the reduced price. Franklin has dynamite in his hands and should have enough wrestling to keep it on the feet long enough to blast Wood into a coma much like Ervin Castillo previously did to Wood. Pick: Franklin Greg Chang (-113) vs Feng Wei (-108): Heavyweight Bout Greg Chang is a former #1, 2 and 3 p4p fighter in the world. He’s only lost twice in his career, both times to the same fighter. These two guys are managed by two of the supreme managers in the world, which makes tactics even more important. Wei has been put out twice before in his career, both times by inferior strikers than the head kick savvy Chang. Put your five bones on the former CFC Heavyweight champ in this one. Pick: Chang Francisco Olivera (-104) vs Evan Crosby (-117): Lightweight Bout Two purple belts competing, both middle of the pack. The difference in this bout is going to be sub defence. Crosby has been tapped twice before while Olivera appears to have a more rounded sub game. Expect to see Olivera stave off Crosby’s attempts from the bottom until he catches Crosby with a kimura or straight arm bar from side control. Pick: Olivera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Two picks out of three would have netted you a small profit on the card. Betting advice coming up for the big Sol vs Mendez card tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 CFC 55: Sol vs Mendez Picks After going 2-1 in my inaugural predictions, I bring forth another episode of Owner’s Insight to attempt to identify the best value bets on an upcoming fight card. All odds come from our partner First Canadian Bookies as of 7:30pm Eastern Time on September 14. You’re probably wondering what I have to say on the big fight,the super fight that is Sol vs Mendez. I think the line is set right. YB has to be a big favourite, but Paolo could conceivably pull it off. If you have to bet on the fight, your cash needs to be riding on YB. Andrew Carter (-133) vs Meat Machine (+108) Machine is an absolute killer on the feet. With five straight victories, including four first round knockouts, Meat Machine is indisputably on a roll. Carter is a slick submission ace whose only loss came at the hands of YB Sol via strikes in the first round. I think you go with the odds in this fight. Machine has solid enough wrestling to keep it on the feet long enough to touch Carter’s chin with one of his power shots to put Carter down and earn a shot at YB Sol himself. Recommended Play: $5 on Meat Machine. Oleg Vasiliev (-111) vs Jafar Agrabah (-111) What appears to be a pick’em is a much easier decision when you look at the external factors of this fight. Vasiliev has yet to depart from Russia and even if he does arrive in time, he will struggle to make weight. Jafar is equally dangerous on his feet and on the mat. He’s a better managed fighter and, combined with his freshness and conditioning advantage, should be able to walk through the import. Recommended Play: $5 on Jafar Agrabah Retino Blastoma (-106) vs Sean Schimling (-115) Sean Schimling is probably one of the more under-rated fighters in the CFC with good stand up and a purple belt. Blastoma is a CFC newcomer who reportedly has fractures in his camp. There’s a chance that Blastoma, an equally talented jiu jitsu player, may even enter this contest without a gameplan. Only bad things can happen. Recommended Play: $5 on Sean Schimling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 Not a good night last card. I’m on the run this morning but here are my recommended plays for CFC 56 (http://www.mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=19788): Phal Um (-133) over Daigo Goto (+108) Connor Ryan (-251) over Matt Johnson (+199) Bubba Kayo (-120) over Michael Parker (-102) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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