MMATycoon Posted March 18, 2009 Report Share Posted March 18, 2009 What do you think is good value in this little lot? I think there are quite a few tempters but one in particular that I'm astonished by. Odds from Bet On Fighting THALES LEITES +350 ANDERSON SILVA -500 MAURICIO RUA +165 CHUCK LIDDELL -205 BRIAN STANN +130 KRZYSZTOF SOSZYNSKI -160 ANTONI HARDONK +240 CHEICK KONGO -300 STEVE CANTWELL +215 LUIZ CANE -275 XAVIER FOUPA-POKAM +260 DENIS KANG -320 NATE QUARRY -110 JASON MACDONALD -120 DAVID LOISEAU -120 ED HERMAN -110 DAVID BIELKHEDEN +240 MARK BOCEK -300 TJ GRANT +175 RYO CHONAN -215 MATT WIMAN +115 SAM STOUT -145 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 18, 2009 Report Share Posted March 18, 2009 I would be tempted to put money on Rua Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 18, 2009 Report Share Posted March 18, 2009 hmmm... you're either thinking about leites based on the lutter/silva fight or wiman thinking that he can take and hold stout down.. yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted March 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 No comment I just want to see what everyone else thinks first but I honestly can't comprehend how this particular line was calculated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 i would say Rua has good value as a bet, at least IMO. but that's why they fight, cause no one knows until it's over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted March 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 To clear that one up, it's certainly not Rua. I think he's going to get slapped silly and really can't see any way he wins at all, unless Chuck's chin has completely shot to shit and he gets caught with a head kick or something funky like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitrus Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 Rua isn't a good bet believe me.. The last fight was the same thing "i never felt better", "I'm in the best shape of my life" I will not put my money om him until he shows back the old Rua.. And man, Rua is my favorite fighter, but his last perfomances,..don't know, i'm not that confident.. For me TJ Grant is the best value there, I really believe that he'll beat Chonan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 crow? I kinda skipped over him because he wasnt a + but I'd say theres definitely value there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted March 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 Well it does show that there are lots of potential value bets if everyone is going for different people. The bet that I was talking about is Matt Wiman. He's at least one level above Sam Stout imho. Don't get drawn into rating him on his two most prominent fights (loss to Fisher and loss to Miller). He absolutely spanked Thiago Tavares. What has Sam Stout ever done on that sort of level? Stout is a kickboxer and not a particularly outstanding kickboxer either. He got soundly beaten by Terry Etim on the feet (not sure if that was on TV but I was there). So whilst I'm sure he's better standing than Wiman, he's not THAT much better there and I'm sure Wiman has him beat everywhere else. I'd have put the line at about -250 for Wiman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 if Rua comes into the ring AGAIN out of shape then i'll change my opinion, but i think we can all name great fighters that at one time or another came into the ring completely out of shape and unprepared for their fight and thus had driven them to never do that again. personally, i see Rua getting into the ring in great shape and 'trying' to make a point. but i really only gamble on football soooo..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitrus Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 If the old Rua back, LHW will be in trouble, even Machida and Rashad! If Rua past thru Liddell, Rampage x Rua is a fight that MUST!!!! happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted March 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 I don't think Shogun was ever that good in the first place to be honest. His run in the GP was great but his striking is pretty nasty and he doesn't have top class wrestling. In short, if you have certain attributes, you can beat him pretty convincingly as he doesn't have that X-Factor of amazing wrestling or KO power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 his lack luster performance with griffin... i'm sure his knee injury had something to do with it but he looked very, very similar against coleman. You can't blame that on an injury. I have a personal theory that shogun was one of the fighters who abused the lax doping policies in Pride and what we're seeing now is the au natural shogun. At one point I was starting to think that it was all of chute box.. maybe why everyone left. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see shogun return to owgp form and become a serious contender within the division again, but I don't see it happening. When he fought coleman, he looked a lot like he did in pride.. but he looked sluggish and had no gas in the tank. If he's slow with no gas in the tank then he's goin to sleep in this fight. I'm pickin liddell for a rd2 tko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombie Jesus Posted March 19, 2009 Report Share Posted March 19, 2009 Wiman is a good bet for sure heh. I also think Hardonk is live dog. Kongo isn't that impressive and is fighting a equally strong striker this time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitrus Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 I don't think Shogun was ever that good in the first place to be honest. His run in the GP was great but his striking is pretty nasty and he doesn't have top class wrestling. In short, if you have certain attributes, you can beat him pretty convincingly as he doesn't have that X-Factor of amazing wrestling or KO power. Shogun was not that good? Man, he just walked thru MW (Lhw) division in Pride! He probably would beat Silva in that time, but all these friends stuff didn't let that happen.. I'm one of biggest 2005 Shogun fan, but if he don't came back in his fight with Liddell, ..man, will be time to just pray for him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 Wiman is probably the best bet, but I don't think there's a huge edge on the line. I could've seen it going up to maybe -125 for Wiman, but no more than that. Not the best event in terms of value. Might be worth a small play on TJ Grant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 agreed. Rua may not win but in my opinion there is value bet there, which i think is what the original post was about. of course i don't see a value bet taking liddell, obviously. i would have to bet 100 to win 50. not good. but in a fight ANYTHING can happen (even more so than in team sports, mma is just much more unpredictable IMO) and therefor i'm much more apt to put money on a decent underdog on something like an mma fight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 agreed. Rua may not win but in my opinion there is value bet there, which i think is what the original post was about. of course i don't see a value bet taking liddell, obviously. i would have to bet 100 to win 50. not good. but in a fight ANYTHING can happen (even more so than in team sports, mma is just much more unpredictable IMO) and therefor i'm much more apt to put money on a decent underdog on something like an mma fight. I am the same I like to wait until a fighter is +200 or +300 but still with a good chance to win. For instance I think Jardine was at +500 or something. I mean that was just about a money maker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombie Jesus Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 I can't believe Leites is a +350, what has he done to deserve that much of a chance against Silva heh. I thought it would be +650-800 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitrus Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 People just think that he'll take Silva down and submit him.. Well, good luck to Leites, but he'll get raped and murdered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2009 Report Share Posted March 20, 2009 Wiman and stann are good bets. Wiman should be the fav really, his standup isn't awful, and he can definitely get the fight to the ground which is sam's weakness. Maybe sam is the fav cause it is in montreal? No idea really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jah Posted March 29, 2009 Report Share Posted March 29, 2009 First of all I would like to say Shogun is one of my favorite fighters so just be aware as the forthcoming will seem biased. Recapping his previous fights inside the Octagon: I rewatched the Forrest Shogun fight. It was even in the first round and you can tell the injury hampered him the whole fight. First of all, he had a ruptured ACL going into the fight, it would prevent him from training properly for the fight, not only prevent him from training properly, but break his will to want to get up and train with that kind of pain. It was evident during the fight since he was basically shuffling from left to right and his overall movement was whack. If you don't know what and injured ACL does to you, it prevents hyperextension of the knee, limits excessive forward and backwards movement and forces you to sort of hop from side to side in order to move laterally. Forrest can have that win, he beat a gassed, undertrained, injured Shogun. In my eyes if he can ever recover from that injury will return to being the top 205lber. Not to mention the guy hadn't fought in a while due to the layoff from Pride being bought out. Furthermore, he had just got married prior to the bout so I'm sure that was a huge distraction. He needed money and had to take the fight, but I guess a loss is a loss. In regards to Coleman, he dominated that fight en route to an unimpressive KO finish regardless of gassing. He moved from Curitiba and opened up his own gym UDL (Fight University translated), and basically didn't have any good training partners as he and some of his training partners from Chute Boxe weren't on the best of terms. With building and setting up a new gym, a new house, and rehabbing from surgery. Furthermore, knowing that he is fighting a man almost twice his age, he probably thought he didn't need to train hardcore and felt he would finish the fight in the first round (which he could have and should have). Either way, he won decisively. The only shots Coleman landed on him happened to come when Rua had his hands way down and had his face completely exposed, it took no skill from Coleman since Rua gassed... again. Rua knows what he did wrong and is preparing properly for the fight by employing a training manager, a Brazilian national wrestling champion, Demian Maia for jits, and a nutrition and cardio coach. Training 3 times a day. If Shogun loses decisively then I'll stop backing up his past two poor performances. But the man has finished all but two fights (both of which against top 10 competition, hell 6 of his wins were over competition that was ranked at the time) and I'll have a whole newfound respect for Chuck... but I REALLY don't see it happening. His older brother Ninja had him training in Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu since age 7, he has a multitude of tools to finish the fight. When is the last time Chuck Liddell put out a 6 hour instructional breaking down techniques from just about every position immaginable in MMA? Liddell's a one trick pony and I think it will fail him once again. His wrestling is decent and sure he could take Rua down, but he will get tapped once it hits the ground as his ground and pound and grappling game is abysmal. Rua's conditioning has always been an issue, but I believe he will do well enough in the first two rounds to not lose a decision. Liddell's only chance is an overhand right. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua over Chuck Liddell - 2nd Round TKO (Ground and Pound) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2009 Report Share Posted March 29, 2009 Jah: I also agree completely. I of course am also biased because I believe that there is money to be made on Rua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 I don't have a big explanation but Chuck nor- sorry liddell by KTFO in the first 3 rounds, not sure which though. Lets see whos dumb enough to retort to this telling me, "THERES ONLY 3 ROUNDS NOOB! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jah Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 I don't have a big explanation but Chuck nor- sorry liddell by KTFO in the first 3 rounds, not sure which though. Seems like your going with the overhand right option then... I simply can't wait. I'm pumped for this fight. Just gonna chill at home with a couple friends who understand MMA and enjoy the fights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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