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Wisdom of Crowds - your predictions please!


MMATycoon

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Hi guys. I've posted about this project a few times in the past and I'm ready to start taking data now. I'm really excited to see if I can make this work, so please check out the wiki to see what it's all about then make any predictions you feel confident about on the links below. Thanks! :)


http://www.mmatycoon.com/woc_event.php?Event=1

http://www.mmatycoon.com/woc_event.php?Event=2

http://www.mmatycoon.info/index.php?title=Wisdom_of_crowds


OH and don't tell anyone what your predictions were and if you haven't already, don't look up the bookie odds.

 

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There is also a separate website set up on the link below. Your login info for MMA Tycoon will also work at MMA Betting Tips.

 

MMA Betting Tips - Wisdom of Crowds

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If there was a way to incorporate this in with the Pick 'Em contest we have every few events in the forums I think that would be awesome. Maybe gain interest in both Wisdom of Crowds and the Pick 'Em. (Not trying to steal any thunder from Wisdom of Crowds, I love the idea and I have my predictions entered)

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Goodluck man, but books are built on the public being stupid. And not that it matters, but I have been leading the betting standings for what seems like years so I do kind of know what I'm talking about.

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if your looking for a money making opportunity in mma betting it very easy.You need excess to bookies in vegas and in europe but sometimes the odds or so different between then you can guarantee yourself a profit no matter the outcome

 

lol

 

Ok, instead of just laughing at you I'll explain.

 

1. No betting is easy or it wouldn't exist.

 

2. It's called arbitage and is very rare. You have to know your shit and get in on opening lines and hope the public pushes it hard the other direction.

 

3. There's little money to be made arb'ing if you by chance can do it.

 

4. Access

 

5. There's plenty of online books you can do from your living room.

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Goodluck man, but books are built on the public being stupid. And not that it matters, but I have been leading the betting standings for what seems like years so I do kind of know what I'm talking about.

 

the public (each of the single people that contribute to the public) is "stupid" as a single decissionmaker. But if you aggregate all the stupid decissions made you might get a pretty good one.

As an example: Lets say you ask 1000 people to guess how many peas are in a glass. There might be some who totaly overestimate the number and some who underestimate it. Some people might be quite close and some far away. Maybe there are one or two that guess the correct number (that would be you if this is translated to mma betting, because you got good betting/peas-guessing skills). But if you take the avarage of all the guesses you might have a accurate estimation of the true number of peas.

Sometimes its more easy to ask many people instead of searching for the one who might have a good advice.

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lol

 

Ok, instead of just laughing at you I'll explain.

 

1. No betting is easy or it wouldn't exist.

 

2. It's called arbitage and is very rare. You have to know your shit and get in on opening lines and hope the public pushes it hard the other direction.

 

3. There's little money to be made arb'ing if you by chance can do it.

 

4. Access

 

5. There's plenty of online books you can do from your living room.

 

I think i use the wrong word in easy but there big arb'ing bets if you check the odds.I don't have excess to las vegas odds or bookies but when i see the odds when watching the event There a massive difference between then a European bookies.Yes i do abing but i don't have enough cash to make it worth my time .I only making 10 euro here 15 euro there.You need a couple of grand in both places .If yo had that type of money you make a couple of hundred every ufc event which is not to bad .I just putting out there because it seems mike is trying to see if he can make money with the predictions (and hopefully he share his results with the rest of us ) but in my opinion arbing would be easier to do since we have players who or based in europe an ind vegas and get the best odds possible and make a guarantee profit

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hmm 6 out of 10 fights have been predicted correctly (if i didn't misscount something).

 

what does this stats tell us in detail?

 

Picks:25 (37)% - the number a fighter was picked
Bookmaker Prediction:22% - Is this based on real-life bookmakers or ingame bookmakers or bookmakers who have participated with their vote?
Raw Crowd Prediction:44% - Average of the 'pick fighter slider?'
Average Confidence:63% - Average of the confidence slider of all the picks towards the fighter?
Your Prediction:37% - my prediction :D

Your Confidence:96% - my confidence (which was in case set to 4 percent or in words: i was really unconfident with my decission),

 

 

The result of Ross Pearson vs Al laquinta seem to be a suprise to the pickers and bookmakers as well. Interesting about this is, that the average confidence of those who picked Al laquinta was higher than the one of those who picked Ross Pearson. Cool stuff :)

Unfortunately its a different story for the Alvey vs Andrews fight.

 

Looking forward to the outcome of todays event.

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Looks like you might have set your confidence slider wrong. High confidence is always to the right, even if you pick the fighter on the right.

 

 

yea, i think i understood that right, but im pretty sure i set it to 4 percent (the slider was placed very far to the left side, but maybe something went wrong with that or soever) and it tells me 96 percent.

Not ment to be criticisms or to say that this didn't work right.

Just wanted to mention it because it could have been some little coding-accident or something thats a pain in the ass to finde later on. But it looks like i am the only one who has experienced this, so it might be just my personal mistake :)

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Picks:25 (37)% - the number a fighter was picked

Bookmaker Prediction:22% - Is this based on real-life bookmakers or ingame bookmakers or bookmakers who have participated with their vote?

Raw Crowd Prediction:44% - Average of the 'pick fighter slider?'

Average Confidence:63% - Average of the confidence slider of all the picks towards the fighter?

Your Prediction:37% - my prediction :D

Your Confidence:96% - my confidence (which was in case set to 4 percent or in words: i was really unconfident with my decission),

 

Bookmaker prediction, I use the average of all odds offered by bookmakers, on a comparison site.

Raw crowd prediction is just a very basic figure, average of all predictions.

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I think the percentages doesn't make this very user friendly. What's the difference in picking 80% or 90% for prediction/ confidence?

 

When I think about the outcomes of fights, these are the 5 categories I'd put them under. These imo should be used instead.

 

1. Very unlikely

2. Unlikely

3. 50/50

4. Likely

5. Very likely

 

If I think Uncle Creepy will very likely to win his fight, I'd pick that option instead of deciding what would be better for me to pick as a percentage - 85%, 90% or 95%?

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i think the percentage slider for confidence is good pick.

Basically its the same as the rating scale you are suggesting (if you break your scale down to percenteges you would have 0, 25, 50, 75, 100 percent) with the little advantage that it measures a bit "finer". It also helps a bit to avoid the tendence that people like to pick the item in the middle of the rating scale. Another problem with rating scales is that they often reach only ordinal level (the distance from very unlikely to likely might be larger/smaller than the distance from unlikely to 50/50). In this case you should not use parametric methods to analyse data but i think the confidence value could cary a lot of information so mike most likely wants to use it as a parametric variable.

 

But i am with you when it comes to the prediction slider. I think we dont need this one. Since the outcome of a fight can only be a win, a loss or a draw i think this 3 options are enough to choose (since you are measuring the confidence-value anyway with the confidence scale).

Would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between the actual confidence scale and the abs value of the prediction skale (when you take it as -50 for fighter a wins to 0 for draw to +50 fighter b wins). I think it might be something like the higher the confidence value the higher the abs prediction value as well :)

But im just guessing. maybe 2 sliders carry indead some more information.

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