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I thought we should have a semi-official betting thread, to post when we actually make a bet with chopper on the financial block, rather than just discussing the merits of potential bets :)

 

I'll open things up with a double that I just put on for a massive $5, which is the sort of values I usually bet at.

 

Jorge Rivera over Nissen Osterneck

&

Gleison Tibau over Jeremey Stevens

Doubles, 1 bet * $5.00 at +165

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I'll just copy and paste from the spreadsheet I keep for my betting records.

 

Fight Pick | Odds | Risk To Win | Ticket # | Date

Jorge Rivera over Nissen Osterneck -135 $20.80 $15.41 55257482 2009.04.01

Gleison Tibau over Jeremy Stephens -170 $20.00 $11.76 55257481 2009.04.01

Martin Kampmann over Carlos Condit -130 $130.00 $100.00 54994662 2009.04.01

 

 

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Nice to see we're on the same page with two of the fights :)

 

As I put in the other thread though, I'm not touching the Kampmann fight. Without watching tape I can't pick a winner but I just have a nagging feeling that Condit is a bit different to anything Kampmann has faced/beaten to date.

 

Do you ever play parlays? I heard Jordan Breen make a very good point about parlays a few months ago, so I'm just doing doubles and trebles on short favourites at the moment to test a theory.

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I wish I could do parlays, I would have made so much more money than I'm currently making, I'm currently with Bookmaker. Long story short, they lied to me about where they stand on parlays, apparently they only do them for "regular sports". Guess I'll elaborate a bit; prior to making my deposit I called to get their policies, deposit bonuses, rollovers, parlays, etc. They told me they do parlays on MMA, and that my deposit bonus was applicable towards MMA. Both of which were lies. Right now, my money is trapped there due to rollovers from the deposit bonus I signed up for, which explains my large bets (should see some of my others, all logical and I'm lucky the fights went as planned so far).

 

The fight is basically a coin toss, but I feel Kampmann has better trainers, training partners, and wrestling to Condit's poor takedown defense. He needs to stay on the outside and pick him apart and counter when necessary. Close the distance if he gets in danger, rather than try to cover up like he did against Marquardt.

 

On that note, Carlos doesn't carry anywhere near the kind of power Marquardt does in his strikes and he would have to break his will and wear him down, which I just don't see happening.

 

Kampmann's grappling game is more diverse as far as his range of submission applications and sweeps. Where as Condit has his bread and butter moves that he can hit almost at will, but is screwed once he exhausts his limited options. I figure if he can avoid Condit's lanky legs trying to catch a triangle, he should be able to walk away with at a decision victory at the very least.

 

Back to the gambling side of things, which is exactly what we're doing since this is MMA, and anything can happen. I'm still way ahead of what I put in, it just sucks I have to bet a little more over a $1000 to be able to withdraw my money. I need Mayhem to pull through for me too over Kala Hose. I don't see Kolohe KOing him as he's one of the most durable fighters out there, and he should easily be able to outgrapple him. As long as he avoids soccer kicks to the head (which I'm not even sure will be legal for this event), he should be able to walk away with the W.

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The bit I'm not with you on is that Kampmann has better and more varied submissions. We'll see though.

 

You may have partially misunderstood me, I didn't say he has a better grappling game, I just feel he is more diverse. I believe Condit has better set ups overall, and thats important as you have to get position before you can lock anything up.

 

I just feel Kampmann has more tools on the mat to get the job done and may have a better chance of catching him off guard by using strikes to open him up, rather than Condit's more traditional style. As you said, we will have to see, should be one of the best fights of the year so far. Regardless of who wins, I'm pretty sure I'm not getting my hopes up as far as the excitement factor goes.

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100$ on Browning, Odds are against him but hes been looking real good, think he was in a bad place mentally in the TUF show and hes been training with the best at Xtreme couture and honestly think he will look way better then the Caplan fight. 147$ on Bader, see good thing from him, this guy hes versing is a stepping stone fight.

 

Only bets so far, haven't lost a bet in MMA yet in all 23 fights I've bet on, lets hope I don't now.

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100$ on Browning, Odds are against him but hes been looking real good, think he was in a bad place mentally in the TUF show and hes been training with the best at Xtreme couture and honestly think he will look way better then the Caplan fight. 147$ on Bader, see good thing from him, this guy hes versing is a stepping stone fight.

 

Only bets so far, haven't lost a bet in MMA yet in all 23 fights I've bet on, lets hope I don't now.

 

May I ask why you are putting $147 on Bader? The odds are horrible at cash value, I understand that he is supposed to mollywhop Marrero, but your money could be placed elsewhere with roughly the same risk, but bigger payout.

 

Its too late now, but I guess it can't hurt to go with someone who is as close to a guarantee as you can get in MMA. I still find its a bit of a waste though as it could have been allocated for a better return on someone with just as good of chances of winning.

 

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May I ask why you are putting $147 on Bader? The odds are horrible at cash value, I understand that he is supposed to mollywhop Marrero, but your money could be placed elsewhere with roughly the same risk, but bigger payout.

 

Its too late now, but I guess it can't hurt to go with someone who is as close to a guarantee as you can get in MMA. I still find its a bit of a waste though as it could have been allocated for a better return on someone with just as good of chances of winning.

That was personally my opinion though its the only fight in this one I know much about, don't know much about kampmann or Condit or the other fights for that matter, so figured a surething bet that doesn't get much is better then a huge risk bet against something I don't know.

 

Never been one to trust betting information as it is, always trusted instinct and experience really so looking for predictions wasn't gonna happen as it was.

 

Edit: No more perfect record. Egg on my face.

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Condit could have and should have won this fight. Glad I didn't bet on it anyway cos that's the most annoying thing - when you kind of see the potential for something to happen but the fighter carries out a strange gameplan. He needed to keep up a fast pace on the feet and in the clinch and stay the hell off the ground but he just let Kampann control the position and ultimately take a rest.

 

So good bets for the most part for all of us anyway, with only Browning losing for Ocion.

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Am i the only one who thought kampmann looked slow on the feet? Maybe its cause he kept burning his arms out with all those guillotines, but all his punches looked sluggish and far from crisp. Maybe thats why he kept taking it to the ground... injury? illness?

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I had martin to win so nice work. I thought he controlled the fight. That judging on the griffin fight wasn't to good. I thought there would be at least one 29-28

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Am i the only one who thought kampmann looked slow on the feet? Maybe its cause he kept burning his arms out with all those guillotines, but all his punches looked sluggish and far from crisp. Maybe thats why he kept taking it to the ground... injury? illness?

 

Yeah, he looked slow in his feet, but did a very good job controlling the fight in the ground.

 

And Condit didnt looked all that good :S

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I profited $15 on a winning bet of Kampmann and a loser on Browning.

 

I have a bunch of small bets (and one big one on Anderson) for UFC Montreal.

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Am i the only one who thought kampmann looked slow on the feet? Maybe its cause he kept burning his arms out with all those guillotines, but all his punches looked sluggish and far from crisp. Maybe thats why he kept taking it to the ground... injury? illness?

 

I wouldn't say he looked slow on the feet, just not as hyperactive as Condit. The fight was about as close as I thought it would be, and went down the way it should have as I alluded to. An excellent fight with great back and forth action, it was a pleasure to watch both these guys go at it.

 

http://drop.io/hf3wxem/asset/untitled-png

 

Junie was the only one to lose me money, as expected. Just happened to think Xtreme Couture would have gotten him prepared enough to be able to walk away with the win, but I wasn't in the least shocked when he got dominated start to finish.

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I profited $15 on a winning bet of Kampmann and a loser on Browning.

 

I have a bunch of small bets (and one big one on Anderson) for UFC Montreal.

 

I had the hard choice of putting money on either Anderson or Mayhem, as both are as close to guaranteed wins as you can get. I believe Mayhem has a better chance than Anderson, and at the more attractive line (not that either lines are that great). Miller has taken several beatings throughout his career and has managed to still put up a fight.

 

If GSP can't finish "Mayhem", then I'm not sure who can. Frank Trigg had to basically soccer kick the shit out of his head to get the stoppage. Miller's BJJ is lightyears ahead of Kolohe's, and that is a fight that will to go to the ground at some point whether its Miller or Hose that forces the takedown. My only concern is Jason's conditioning as of late. Kala does a lot of running and cardio related workouts, he may not be a technically sound striker, but he carries a good amount of power in his strikes. The only way I see him losing is due to a Flash KO, couple that with how lenient refs tend to be in Hawaii, I still expect "Mayhem" to be able to recover and go on to win the bout as he is a very smart fighter. With that said, I decided to go ahead and put a full unit on Miller at -415, hopefully things go as planned.

 

Jason Miller over Kala Kolohe Hose via Submission (Round 2)

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