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UFC Fight Night 121 Previews


TPowell

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Hamilton/Wieczorek

 

Keep in mind I started watching film expecting to play Wieczorek over the absolutely awful Hamilton but I'm starting to have second thoughts for sure. Have watched Adam Wieczorek's last 3 fights including his big win over Zoumanan Cisse (the guy that beat Francis Ngannou). What I can tell you for sure is that this guy is WAY too comfortable being pushed up against the cage and his takedown defense against bigger HW's isn't good. Cisse got him down multiple times early and bombed away but couldn't land the big GnP shots. He was definitely losing the round until mid way through when he got a well timed TD and showcased some pretty good BJJ to attack with subs and strikes until he got the finish. Same deal in his last fight, he was pushed against the cage for a while and then a guy missed some type of dumb head and arm throw and he landed on top in good position and got the sub quickly. His striking is very Muay Thai based as most Polish fighters are. It isn't bad but nothing special for sure and he seems to be very inactive on the feet and easily forced to fight off his back foot. In that same respect, he tends to be more willing to throw later on in fights so possibly a slow starter. Will have to see if there is more tape past round one on him. He's also a smaller frame type of HW. In his last fight, he was 227 pounds against Ernesto Papa who was 224. In the Cisse fight, he was 243 and outweighed by over 20 pounds. Against Wiwatowski, he was 227 pounds again and his opponent was a little under 230 himself. Just finished the Wiwatowski fight that was 1.5 minutes from going the distance and he won with an armlock from the bottom. His BJJ is slick but if he doesn't hit that, he is in a tight decision with this guy that has been beaten in 1 round by 3 fighters that will never ever see the UFC.

 

 

Another thing to be aware of in the Coulter/Tuivasa fight is that Tuivasa is NOT undefeated in reality. He was beaten in 2013 by Peter Graham and finished. The reason it didn't count is it wasn't an official MMA fight but the only real differences were the round length (2.5 minutes I think) and you could only grapple for 30 seconds. He started off really well nailing Graham and nearly finishing him but he gassed badly and was eventually finished out on his feet. Tuivasa fought 7 times as a pro boxer and went 5-2. Interestingly enough, he went 5-2 and 6 fights were one night tournament fights. He won the 1st and 2nd rounds both times but was then beaten by decision in the final fight. His technique isn't bad on the feet but he tends to get sloppy lunging in. He uses knees and elbows pretty well at times but his ground game is laughable. I watched him go for a head and arm throw and end up on the bottom in one of his last couple fights. He was able to scramble back up somehow but I think a lot had to do with the quality of competition. He won his last fight by a weird retirement after round one because the other guy said he couldn't see out of nowhere really. In his corner, you see him huffing and puffing horribly before he knew it was over.

 

 

I see Coulter as a similar type of fighter as Tuivasa but I think Coulter is certainly the quicker guy in this fight. Coulter should NOT be fighting at 265. The guy is 6'0 and has made 205 and 187 for MW before. He typically comes into fights around 240 or so (give or take 5 pounds) but he'll be giving up some size to Tuivasa who literally has to cut weight to get down to 265 at 6'2. Tuivasa is only 24 years old to Coulter's 35 but Coulter has only been a pro fighter about a year or so longer. This is the perfect fight to stay away from IMO. Coulter got his leg chewed up last fight for sure but he was gassed and out on his feet cardio wise as well in the 2nd round. With Tuivasa, ANY amount of clinching/grinding will have him falling down gassing as well after 1 round. When they gas, I think you have to give the edge to Tuivasa because he should be the more powerful striker but Coulter has a ton of heart. I could definitely see this fight seeing the back end of round two and depending on the odds, I may make a small play on it but these guys are so unathletic and out of shape that one could fall down from exhaustion and quit.

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Elias/Dan Kelly

 

 

Theo/Kelly fight is pretty straightforward as far as MMA goes. Elias has no way to finish virtually anyone but pushes good pace and has great cardio. His TDD though is a little less than stellar and I'm not super comfortable with his decisions on the ground. Kelly is a tough vet who has that judo power grappling game and some BJJ but not enough to threaten real UFC level guys IMO. Kelly's age and lack of athletic ability is what sticks out to you when looking at him and I feel like Elias can exploit that on the feet. The only issue is that Elias likes to play the grinder role himself and get dirty in the clinch. Kelly WILL take him down in this fight if that happens and Elias tends to get caught on bottom for periods of time against less talented grapplers. I like Elias to take round three with a spent Dan Kelly but he can't afford to drop rounds by hanging out on bottom before then. At -260 (ML) on a fight destined for a decision, I'm not biting but Elias by decision is a very likely scenario and you can get that at -130 instead of the -270 for the fight to hit the cards. That is the play here but it isn't sexy. Just a predictable type ending to 2 very predictable fighters getting together.

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Good write ups.

 

Elias is a very underrated fighter, if he can focus 100% on MMA and keeps active he can become a contender. I've followed him his whole career and he is still getting better in m opinion, he just hasn't hit his stride fully yet. He should be able to stay off his back here and smash Kelly around on the feet for 2nd round TKO.

 

I've always had high regard for Brad Tavares so losing a decision to him doesn't hinder him much for me.

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Good write ups.

 

Elias is a very underrated fighter, if he can focus 100% on MMA and keeps active he can become a contender. I've followed him his whole career and he is still getting better in m opinion, he just hasn't hit his stride fully yet. He should be able to stay off his back here and smash Kelly around on the feet for 2nd round TKO.

 

I've always had high regard for Brad Tavares so losing a decision to him doesn't hinder him much for me.

 

Its hard for me to back Elias finishing anyone but he is a solid competitor. He doesn't wow you with anything skill wise but he has great cardio and it works hard.

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Have talked myself into a play against Anthony Hamilton

 

I'm starting to get around to fading Anthony Hamilton. He's been brutally KO'd in his last 2 fights (concussed) and NOW he's fighting again 2 months since DEFINITELY being concussed by a guy who is terrible (albeit because he's still very green) but regardless. Marcel Fortuna isn't some power puncher at 205, much less at HW. Jake Collier (a glorified 185'er) ate some solid punches from him and beat him with volume coming back. At 37 years old and with a lot of fights under his belt, I just think Hamilton is shop worn. He retired after losing that last fight and then was booked a fight a month later (this fight) but it was rescheduled due to soccer riots. This guy is looking for a paycheck, simple as that. Normally, I wouldn't touch this one with a 10 foot pole but when a guy is not mentally there due to concussions, has a poor chin, and wanted to retire less than 3 months ago, I'm going to pull the trigger on anything reasonable. Only question now is do you want the ML on Adam W at -160 or ITD at -124. To be honest, I think the only way this goes the distance is because Hamilton fights smart and clinches a lot which hurts Adam anyway so -124 sounds good to me

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Good write ups.

 

Elias is a very underrated fighter, if he can focus 100% on MMA and keeps active he can become a contender. I've followed him his whole career and he is still getting better in m opinion, he just hasn't hit his stride fully yet. He should be able to stay off his back here and smash Kelly around on the feet for 2nd round TKO.

 

I've always had high regard for Brad Tavares so losing a decision to him doesn't hinder him much for me.

Until Elias develops an at least decent boxing game, I have a hard time seeing him become a contender. I personally think Kelly is a horrible matchup for him.

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Matthews/Bojan

 

 

Starting to come around on Matthews I think. Bojan is tough as nails and throws a solid leg kick but his wrestling is very subpar. In a nutshell, he's a tough guy who gets by on his heart and physicals instead of his skillset. When I first read Jake Matthews was coming off dual hip surgery since his last fight, I thought about fading here but then something else happened. Reading interviews, he said he had never been a flexible guy and the grappling on the mat always killed him. He fratured his right hip in that Kevin Lee fight in July and then fought Holbrook in November (more than likely because it was in Australia). He then had surgery on that right hip in December and then the left side in February. He talks about always feeling like something was restricting him from stretching (hip wise) and then he learned after the Lee fight that the cartilage was gone so it was bone on bone limiting his flexibility. I'm getting ready to watch this Holbrook fight again but I'm really coming around to the fact that Matthews was nowhere near 100% in that fight with Holbrook. When you look at his other fights, he beats lower tier guys (usually gets the finish) but falls short against contenders (Vick and Lee). Not a problem here though. Bojan will NEVER be a top 10 fighter at WW or anywhere else. I was thinking about passing at first, then the over, now I'm thinking Matthews -135 is fine. Bojan's only shot here is the crazy sub or decision and I don't think Aussie's let Jake lose 3 straight and possibly his UFC spot

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This will be Jake's first fight in the UFC at 170 but looking at him in weigh-ins, he looks to be the bigger guy between himself and Bojan. At his age, Matthews was always going to have to go up a division eventually. He is incredibly thick at 5'9 and very powerful. He struggled with Holbrook's physicality in his last fight but I think him not being 100% had a lot to do with that, as well as Holbrook being a big LW that is a solid grinder. With Bojan, he doesn't have much to offer wrestling wise. He doesn't defend take-downs well at all and his TD's are pretty easily stopped. I also don't think the UFC sends anyone over to Australia that they think has a good chance at delivering Jake's 3rd loss in a row. The guy is still a big draw for Australia cards and 3 straight losses is close to the hammer. When you look at Jake's losses outside of Holbrook, it was to Lee who big brothered him in the wrestling/strength department and to Vick who he lit up on the feet for a few minutes before eating some shots in the clinch and getting guillotined by the super long Vick. None of these are ways that Bojan can beat him though IMO. I think people will be surprised with the striking as well. His striking really hasn't cost him any fights in the UFC despite being better known for his wrestling.

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Last thing I'll post on this fight. I see Mike leans toward Bojan and has a unit on this fight going the distance which I can see for sure. Matthews DOES try to out-physical guys on the ground a little too much but he's still a brown belt in BJJ (probably not in great gyms) but he has decent technique. I think Bojan will flick out some of those powerless kicks and then try to grind against the cage and overpower Matthews. The issue is that I believe Matthews could get the better of these striking exchanges and going up to 170 pounds helps an already good gas tank that Matthews has. Bojan is solid in his own right but in a fight going 3 rounds, I'll take the better conditioned guy and the guy with the better wrestling and more than likely striking even if he may be the weaker guy (which I doubt looking at the weigh-ins). My only concern is if Bojan DOES stuff the takedowns, he may be able to edge Matthews on the scorecards but this price is way too low and completely based around a couple bad performances in a row on paper (picked apart and finished by Lee and then the real stinker vs Holbrook).

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