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Wisdom of Crowds - your predictions please!


MMATycoon

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

FYI, i'm planning on opening an in-game bookie for those who want to test this thing without playing actual money. I'll use real odds from a bookmaker (i'm thinking Sportbet), and the max bet will be set at $200 per fight, wich should be more than enough to replicate real life bettings.

 

Would it be too much to ask to indicate us at which time GMT you're showing the predictions? it's bad enough that i have to wake up in the middle of the night to see them, i don't wanna do it for nothing :)

 

... Just to be sure, i can bet in my own bookie company, right? It'd be a shame if i could'nt use it myself :)

 

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On a sidenote, when this things starts for real and you'll charge us to use it, have you thought about giving the possibility to spend VIP days to do it? VIP can be bought with in-game money, and i'm sure people will be more willing to spend VIP rather than actual money - I know that'd be the case for me, and i can't even bet on MMA here in France, but i'll gladly spend VIP days to simulate bets, until I can find a solution to actually be able to bet (if someone know a way, let me know!)

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  • 3 weeks later...

OK I'm going to start giving this a shot. I was skipping over it before because I'm having a hard time understanding how Confidence should work and deciding where I should set that slider. Maybe it will make more sense the more picks I make. I can't stop thinking of it as having the same amount of confidence as the prediction. So if I think fighter A has 80% on the prediction slider then I also have 80% confidence in that prediction. Or if its a 50/50 prediction then I'm only 50% confident in that. Not really understanding how to not think of it in that way.

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OK I'm going to start giving this a shot. I was skipping over it before because I'm having a hard time understanding how Confidence should work and deciding where I should set that slider. Maybe it will make more sense the more picks I make. I can't stop thinking of it as having the same amount of confidence as the prediction. So if I think fighter A has 80% on the prediction slider then I also have 80% confidence in that prediction. Or if its a 50/50 prediction then I'm only 50% confident in that. Not really understanding how to not think of it in that way.

 

If it can make this more understandable, here's how I see it :

 

For Machida / Dollaway for example, I felt that i really knew what they were both capable of... Win or loose, Machida has never surprised anyone for years. He never comes out of shape, and at this point we know what kind of fighters he will have difficulties against, and Dollaway is not one of these fighters. I went something like 85 or 90% in prediction AND confidence.

 

Now let's take Shogun VS Ovince St Preux. Before the fight, most of us saw Rua as a pretty big favourite. I probably went 70 or 75 % in his favor for the prediction. That said, he's been inconsistent for years now, often injured, and we all know that he doesn't train as seriously as he should. I knew OSP since the Strikeforce days and he has never really impressed me, but on the other hand I felt like at his age, he could have some potential we haven't seen yet. For those reasons my confidence was lower than my prediction, probably around 50%.

 

Same goes for Bendo, for different reasons, regardless of the opponent, he often gets himself into very controversial decision that could have gone either way. This is just his style. Regardless of how good he his, i'll always tend to lower my confidence a little.

 

For "littler" fights, my confidence is also lowered : Since I don't know the fighters as well as Bendo, Shogun or Machida and co., I'll probably rely more on their last performances and the few memories I have about them. Of course, I refrain myself from making a pick if I barely know the guys involved in the fight.

 

Basically (and others may have adifferent way to use these sliders), here's how I see it :

 

Prediction : What I think should happen.

Confidence : A ponderation based on my knowledge of the fighter(s), how consistent I think he is... to take this further, i'll also take into account if the fighter comes out of a long layoff, his age (will he suddenly become too old for this shit?) etc...

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So, i did a few calculations out of curiosity. I wanted to see what the ROI looked like if you re-invest the money after each event's gain, using the method B.

 

- I started with 100 €/$/£ on the Rockhold vs Bisping event, and I simulated bets with all the money available in every subsequent event, excluding the Bellator ans WSOF events (not enough fights, it wouldn't make sense to risk all the capital on a couple of fights)

 

...And it looks awesome : +550% in almost 3 months! That should make a good selling point :)

 

http://hpics.li/8617a72

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not yet, no. i'll do it at the same time as we get the app going. i haven't spent enough time figuring out what people need to do to earn a credit. i'll probably make it so you can earn parts of a credit, so it's not so brutal / cut and dry.

 

it will be shown on the event page itself.

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I'm confused, this is only the first time I have looked at the thread and don't feel like reading the whole thing. What is the 3 days VIP for? To do the predictions? Or if you want to see the results to gamble?

 

I don't really intend to gamble at all but I just like doing the predictions

30 days to view the predictions ahead of time, to use the predictions to bet with.

 

The app is nearly ready, which I'll be charging $3 to view the predictions, not at the MMATycoon users but at betting people. I'm hoping that brings in some decent money, to reinvest in the game! :)

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